Texas GOP Primary Divides Over Trump Influence

Shadows of a donkey and elephant on an American flag

Texas GOP voters delivered a stunning rebuke to establishment Senator John Cornyn, forcing him into a runoff with Trump-aligned AG Ken Paxton after a near-tie in the March 3 primary.

Story Snapshot

Cornyn edges Paxton 42% to 41% in GOP primary, with Hunt at 14%, triggering May 26 runoff in safe Republican seat.
Pre-primary Hobby poll showed Paxton leading 38%-31%, highlighting Trump base frustration with Cornyn’s record.
Paxton’s 72% GOP favorability dwarfs Cornyn’s 61%, fueled by 89% Trump approval among primary voters.
Runoff tests President’s influence as Texas GOP shifts right, rejecting D.C. insiders amid economic woes.

Primary Results Force Runoff Clash

John Cornyn received 907,000 votes or 42% in the Texas U.S. Senate GOP primary on March 3, 2026. Ken Paxton garnered 881,000 votes at 41%. Wesley Hunt finished third with 293,000 votes or 14%. With 98.9% of precincts reporting, no candidate reached the 50% threshold, setting a May 26 runoff between Cornyn and Paxton. This outcome in a deeply red state underscores voter demand for America First fighters over long-time incumbents.

Pre-Primary Poll Predicted Paxton Surge

The University of Houston Hobby School poll released before the primary showed Paxton leading Cornyn 38% to 31% among likely GOP voters. Paxton enjoyed 72% favorability, versus Cornyn’s 61%. Hunt trailed at lower levels with 70% favorability. Trump scored 89% approval, with 55% of voters preferring his backed candidates. This data reflected base anger at establishment figures seen as soft on border security and fiscal issues from the Biden era.

UT/Texas Politics Project polls noted fiercer competition and Cornyn’s favorability rebound from 38% in late 2025. Economic concerns surpassed immigration as top GOP priorities, aiding challengers like Paxton who sued Biden over open borders. Paxton’s 2023 impeachment acquittal solidified his insurgent appeal in a state led by Gov. Greg Abbott, 86% favorable among Republicans.

Stakeholders and Power Shifts

Cornyn, elected in 2002 and seeking a fifth term, called Paxton “flawed” while defending his Senate influence. Paxton, Texas AG since 2015, vowed not to “go quietly,” leveraging his national profile from Biden policy lawsuits. Hunt emerged as a rising conservative but split the anti-Cornyn vote. President Trump and VP JD Vance, at 89% and 87% GOP favorability, loom as key influencers in the runoff.

Power dynamics favor Paxton among the Trump base, which dominates primaries. Cornyn represents D.C. establishment trailing in head-to-head matchups. Paxton-Hunt split handed Cornyn a narrow lead, but runoff dynamics could amplify grassroots turnout. This feud risks GOP unity ahead of midterms, yet energizes conservatives frustrated with past globalism and overspending.

Impacts and Road Ahead

Short-term, the runoff deepens GOP divisions and may suppress turnout, while Democrats advance James Talarico over Jasmine Crockett 57%-46%. Long-term, a Paxton win shifts Texas Senate further right, weakening national GOP establishment control. Economic priorities like inflation, overtaking border issues at 25% concern, boost Trump-style candidates. Rural-urban turnout splits highlighted base mobilization.

Polls diverged from results: Hobby predicted Paxton lead, but Cornyn surged late, possibly via turnout shifts. Experts note Paxton’s lower net favorability at 50% versus Hunt’s 60%. National implications test Trump’s midterm clout; a Paxton victory signals end to RINO tolerance. Texas voters, weary of leftist policies, demand fighters committed to constitutional values and limited government.