Buttigieg SURGES Ahead – Harris FADES Fast
Pete Buttigieg has emerged as the frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, with Vice President Kamala Harris’s support plummeting in recent polls.
At a Glance
- Pete Buttigieg leads the 2028 Democratic primary field with 31.5% support from self-identified Democrats
- Kamala Harris has fallen to third place with 16.6% support, down from 24% in April
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has moved into second place with 19.4% support
- On the Republican side, Vice President J.D. Vance leads with 37.3% support over Marco Rubio’s 18.7%
- Harris’s decline may be linked to revelations about President Biden’s health
Democrats Looking Past Harris for 2028
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has emerged as the clear frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination according to a new Atlas Intel poll. The former 2020 presidential candidate now commands 31.5% support among self-identified Democrats, significantly outpacing other potential candidates. This represents a remarkable turnaround for Buttigieg, who previously raised over $75 million and secured 17% of the popular vote in the 2020 primaries before endorsing Joe Biden.
Perhaps most surprising is Vice President Kamala Harris’s fall to third place with just 16.6% support, down from 24% in April. She now trails progressive Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who holds 19.4% support. Other potential Democratic contenders show even less voter enthusiasm, with Senator Cory Booker at 10.4% and California Governor Gavin Newsom at 7.1%.
Biden Health Revelations Impact Harris
Harris’s declining support appears connected to recent developments regarding President Biden’s health. Political science professor Grant Davis Reeher from Syracuse University’s Maxwell School offered insight into Harris’s polling slump, pointing to recent revelations about the administration.
The political calculus for Harris remains complex. Reports indicate she is considering both another presidential run and potentially a gubernatorial campaign in California. Her decision will likely be influenced by the evolving perception of her role in the Biden administration and her ability to reconnect with key Democratic voting blocs that shifted toward Republicans in recent elections.
Republican Field Takes Shape
The Atlas Intel poll also provides insight into the early Republican field for 2028. Vice President J.D. Vance has established himself as the frontrunner with 37.3% support among Republican voters. Senator Marco Rubio follows at 18.7%, while Donald Trump Jr. and former Florida Governor Ron DeSantis register 8.8% and 7% respectively. Notably, 16% of Republican respondents preferred “none of the above,” suggesting potential openness to other candidates.
While Buttigieg currently leads the Democratic field, he has publicly downplayed speculation about his 2028 plans, stating that “any kind of decision process there is a long way off.” Most potential candidates from both parties are expected to withhold formal announcements until after the 2026 midterm elections, allowing them to gauge the political landscape.
Poll Reliability and Context
The Atlas Intel poll stands out for its contradiction of other recent surveys. Polls from Echelon Insights and McLaughlin & Associates had previously shown Harris as the leading Democratic contender for 2028. However, Atlas Intel has earned credibility as a top-rated polling firm, receiving praise from respected polling analyst Nate Silver for its accuracy in predicting the 2024 presidential race outcomes.
The comprehensive survey was conducted between May 21 and May 27, 2025, with responses from 3,469 U.S. adults. With a margin of error of ±2.2%, the results provide a substantive early look at voter preferences nearly three years before the next presidential primaries begin. The Democratic party now faces critical questions about which candidate can best rebuild the coalition needed to reclaim the White House in 2028.
