Kennedy’s Support For Trump Tilts The Balance In Swing States
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s decision to halt his independent campaign in several key battleground states and throw his support behind President Donald Trump has sent shockwaves through the 2024 presidential race. New polling by Trump’s pollster, Tony Fabrizio, indicates this move could bolster Trump in states where margins are already razor-thin.
According to Fabrizio’s survey, Kennedy had been attracting a small but potentially crucial portion of voters in states like Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Before his endorsement of Trump, Kennedy’s support ranged from 3% to 5% across these states. However, his exit and backing of Trump have shifted the landscape, as most of Kennedy’s supporters appear to be gravitating toward Trump rather than Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
In Arizona, for example, 53% of RFK Jr. supporters now back Trump, compared to just 28% for Harris. Similar trends emerge in Georgia and Michigan, although the shifts are narrower—Trump gains 13% more RFK Jr. voters than Harris in Georgia and just 2% more in Michigan. Other battlegrounds like Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin show Trump capturing between 16% and 21% more of Kennedy’s supporters than Harris.
Though Kennedy’s vote share was modest, it could be pivotal in swing states. Trump and Harris are nearly tied in several battlegrounds—Trump leads by as little as 0.2% in Arizona and Pennsylvania, while Harris holds slim leads in Wisconsin and Michigan. With such close margins, Kennedy’s endorsement could give Trump the edge he needs in these critical states.
Kennedy’s decision has turned up the pressure in a race where every fraction of a percentage point could determine the outcome. Both parties will likely intensify efforts in these battlegrounds as they assess the changing dynamics caused by Kennedy’s endorsement.
