Mexico’s Presidential Race Comes Down To Battle Of Leftists

With Mexico’s June presidential election quickly approaching, the southern neighbor appears to be headed toward a leftist government leader who will likely not be friendly to U.S. interests.

Relations with the large southern neighbor of the U.S. are critical with issues such as illegal migration, the deluge of illegal drugs and cartel violence looming large.

But American conservatives are unlikely to gain a working partner after the June election. The slate of candidates huddled at the top of Mexico’s polls are not exactly in tune with Republicans on the major issues.

The consensus frontrunner in the race is Claudia Sheinbaum. She is the candidate for the leftist President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s Morena party. Also in the running is self-professed Trotskyite Xochitl Galvez and Jorge Maynez of the Citizens’ Movement.

He is an outspoken supporter of abortion, gay marriage and other left-wing causes.

But it’s Sheinbaum with a strong lead over Galvez with a 49% to 29% cushion in a February survey by Parametria. A previous poll showed her lead as even wider, indicating a slight tightening of the race.

A victory by either will give Mexico its first female head of state.

One factor in the difficulty the right faces in the nation’s politics is the strong centrist identity of the majority of voters. According to Vanderbilt University’s Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP), a strong 51% of the populace identifies themselves in the ideological middle.

Mexican politics tends to avoid strong left-wing stands, though calling oneself a Trotskyite runs counter to this idea. Most candidates stay in the political middle and use mild populist rhetoric to appeal to voters, even if they have stronger personal positions.

LAPOP’s Noam Lupu told Americas Quarterly that “Mexican politics has never emphasized left or right.” 

Unlike many of their Latin American neighbors, the country did not endure a 20th century dictatorship. They did, however, spend decades under the fist of the Institutional Revolutionary Party’s (PRI) governance.

Under PRI and since it relinquished sole power, Mexico drifted leftward to the point that all of its leading 2024 candidates are noticeably on that side of center.