GOP Has Favorable Shot At Regaining Senate Control

While much of the media’s attention is on the upcoming presidential election, a host of congressional races across the country will also play a pivotal role in the direction of the country over the next several years. 

Both chambers of Congress are almost evenly divided with the GOP maintaining a slim majority in the House and the Senate split 51 to 49 in favor of the Democratic Party.

With all 435 members of the House on the ballot each two years, the real wild card is the Senate, where lawmakers serve six-year terms and the electoral landscape changes dramatically from one election season to the next. Analysts note that Republicans are in an advantageous position heading into the 2024 race for several reasons.

For starters, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) announced he would not be seeking another term. Considering West Virginia’s Republican-leaning status, Manchin’s departure will give the party a clear opportunity to flip his seat, thus resulting in a 50-50 Senate split.

Further evidence of mounting GOP optimism involves the fact that nearly twice as many Democrats — 20 — will be defending their seats than Republicans — 11 — out of the 34 total seats up for a vote in next year’s election.

In addition to the Cook Political Report’s designation of the West Virginia seat as “solid Republican” with GOP Gov. Jim Justice leading in the polls, nine of the seats the party will be fighting for received the same categorization and the remaining two were listed as “likely Republican.”

Only 15 seats are listed as solid or likely Democratic, which means several of the seats currently held by a Democrat will be up for grabs.

Four seats on the ballot were classified as “lean Democratic” and three received a “toss-up” label.

The list of toss-up states includes Arizona, where Sen. Kyrsten Sinema will be running for another term — but this time as an independent after leaving the Democratic Party. 

Another toss-up is Montana, where both Navy Seal Tim Sheehy and Rep. Matt Rosendale, who is expected to announce his candidacy, are both performing well in polls against incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester.

Finally, Ohio represents a jump-ball for both parties. Although long-time Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown has the advantage of incumbency, the drain of President Joe Biden’s unpopularity and the state’s shift toward Republican leadership in recent years make his re-election anything but certain.